Valdez, Alaska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

223
FXAK68 PAFC 131411
AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
511 AM AKST Tue Jan 13 2026

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

Low pressure moves north towards Southcentral from the Gulf of
Alaska through at least Wednesday. Cloud cover and precipitation
is expected to spread across a large chunk of Southcentral,
allowing for increased temperatures. A warmer air mass is trying
to work its way north as well, which may bring much warmer
temperatures into Southcentral late this week. There remains some
uncertainty as to how much warm air moves in and if it is able to
overcome the persistent cold that has been locked in place
recently. The increase in southeasterly winds and expanding snow
showers will commence late Wednesday into Thursday with the
arrival of the initial frontal system and atmospheric river into
the region. Details on where exactly the heaviest moisture axis
will set up and tracks of various surface features are still
unclear at this point in time, but confidence is relatively high
for warmer air and southerly flow off the Gulf to work in across
Southcentral Alaska starting Wednesday night and Thursday. Mixed
precipitation is possible along the central and southwestern
Kenai Peninsula and isolated portions of the southern Copper River
Basin late this week, with transitions to rain for Kodiak Island
and coastal areas along the north Gulf coast. Any falling
precipitation ahead of the warm air will fall as snow (through at
least Thursday morning), with Cordova being the exception who
could see rain or a rain snow mix during the daytime hours.

&&


.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days
1 through 3: Today through Thursday night)...

Key Messages:

* Bitterly cold temperatures and wind chills continue for
  Southwest Alaska and the Alaska Peninsula through Thursday. Cold
  Weather Advisories and Extreme Cold Warnings remain in effect.

* Gusty winds and snow showers continue across the Aleutian and
  Pribilof Islands through midweek, leading to periods of visibility
  reductions in blowing snow.

* As early as late Wednesday night, an incoming warm and wet storm
  system could bring the potential for freezing rain and rain to
  parts of the Alaska Peninsula and Southwest Alaska.


Active Advisories and Warnings:

* A Winter Weather Advisory is in effect for the Central Aleutians
  beginning 9AM AKST Wednesday.

* An Extreme Cold Warning remains in effect for Western Kuskokwim
  Valley and Port Heiden until 6PM AKST Thursday.

* A Cold Weather Advisory remains in effect from the southern
  Alaska Peninsula to mainland Southwest Alaska until 6PM AKST
  Thursday.


Discussion:

Confidence remains a bit lower than usual as models continue to struggle
with the complex weather pattern taking shape. The biggest
challenges have been with a low moving over the Central Aleutians
on Wednesday, and the series of storms moving from the North
Pacific into Southwest Alaska beginning late Wednesday night.
Starting off with the low moving over the Central Aleutians
tomorrow, models have been trending towards this system stalling
near the Central Aleutians through as late as Friday morning. This
could mean a longer duration of snow and higher overall snow
amounts. Additionally, models have been trending towards a tighter
circulation with stronger winds; gusts with this system could be
in the range of 60 to 75 mph. Forecast confidence is not helped by
the fact that this is a rather small-scale feature. As such, the
forecast for Adak and Atka could continue to shift dramatically
as models struggle with the track of the low.

For Southwest Alaska and the Alaska Peninsula, we continue to
monitor the potential for rain, freezing rain, and heavy snow from
late Wednesday night through the end of the week. Models continue
to be divergent with the back-to-back storms moving into Southwest
Alaska later this week. In particular, temperatures have been
quite tricky, which also complicates the forecast for snow vs ice
vs rain amounts. In some areas, models are showing as much as a
20 degree temperature difference. What models can agree on is that
this will be a wet and warm system that will bring a major
pattern change from the bitter cold we`ve been seeing these past
few days. There`s also decent consensus among the latest model
runs that the warmest upper level temperatures will be east of a
line from Chignik to Dillingham to Crooked Creek. That means that,
if the weather materializes like the models are depicting, the
greatest chances for rain or freezing rain will be for parts of
Bristol Bay and the Alaska Peninsula east of this line. For
communities along and west of this line, the primary concern will
be heavy snow, with perhaps the potential for blowing snow along
Kuskokwim Delta and Western Capes if winds trend stronger. All
told, the forecast will be highly dependent on the track of the
lows. Please stay tuned to the forecast.

-KC

&&


.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Friday through Monday)...

The long term forecast begins with an amplified pattern over much
of Alaska. A broad trough will be in place over the central
Bering on Friday with strong southerly flow downstream of the
trough, extending from the North Pacific up into Southcentral
Alaska. Potential impacts from this atmospheric river will entail
gusty winds into the northern Gulf coast and Prince William Sound,
widespread rain showers into the coast, heavy snow at higher
elevations, and a significant warm up in temperatures across all
of Southcentral. The amplified pattern begins to break down on
Saturday with a ridge of high pressure building over the eastern
Bering and Southwest Alaska. A deepening trough west of the
Aleutians will serve to reinforce downstream ridging through the
end of the long term period early next week.

Models continue to exhibit small differences with the overall
strength and track of the low Thursday into Friday, and there is
still potential for changes to the forecast over the next 48
hours. However, overall confidence is increasing that the
strongest winds will occur offshore of the Southcentral Coast from
Kayak Island into Prince William Sound. Gales with gusts to 50+
knots are currently forecast. If the low on Thursday takes a track
further north, the potential would increase for high winds
through the Eastern Turnagain Arm lower elevations. Currently, the
highest inland winds are forecast to remain over the mountains.

One last area of concern will be across the Central Aleutians
early on Friday. A vigorous area of low pressure is progged to
lift into the region with the potential for hurricane force gusts.
This low is followed up with a large frontal system into the
western Bering and Aleutians Sunday into Monday.

-BL

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...Snow and MVFR conditions will persist through much of the
day. IFR conditions, especially IFR visibilities, are possible
within pockets of heavier snow showers. North to northeast winds
around 10 kts or less will persist through much of the TAF period
before turning turning southerly Wednesday morning as light snow
continues.

&&

$$